Source for the above image: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293564/ukrainian-refugees-in-poland/ Greetings friends, this is just a surmising of population values on a fairly simplistic level to determine likely outcomes for the near term in Ukraine (basically the next year and change); before the war started there were approximately 44 million people in Ukraine and 15 million have crossed the Polish border since then at a rate of around 25,000 a day; since May or June that number has gone up to as much as 40,000 and decreased a bit more recently (probably because of the winter). I believe the initial surge of immigrants had some male participants but they did at least attempt to close the border so it would just be women and children; I don't know what the current state of that law is but suffice to say the border has not closed and just in Poland there's somewhere between 5 and 7 million Ukranians as a result of the war (nearly doubling the size of some Polish cities for example)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... The spring offensive as it was known happened somewhere between May and July and not very much changed, the Russians have counterattacked and also not accomplished much other than raw attrition; but fundamentally Russia just has more manpower and the Ukrainians aren't causing 4x as many casualties as they are receiving which is roughly the rate required to stabilize the conflict for all eternity. Therefore the war will end (for now) or have a ceasefire soon-ish and the purpose of this exercise is just to figure out when that should happen demographically. If we assume there's 30 million Ukrainians left in Ukraine presently and the willingness to leave over time does not change (so basically the immigration over the Polish border rate is constant at approximatley 25,000 which it has been for 1.5 years); then Ukraine is losing 750,000 people per month or 9 million per year; obviously at some point that rate would go down since you run out of people that are capable of leaving (I would have guessed this would have happened already but apparently it did not); but 9 million per year plus military attrition leaves us with 2.5-3 years as a maximalist depopulation; this isn't a reasonable thing to happen so at some point between peace talks will commence and then we'll have a frozen conflict for at least a few years (I would guess further Russian aggression later on, maybe like 8-10 years after the ceasefire, probably targetting Odessa first and foremost). As far as when that happens I'd guess middle of next year at the earliest and start of the following year at the latest; Even if NATO sends all of the armaments at its disposal they still won't send actual soldiers so essentially the war is a demographic certainty with current migration rates; that said insurgencies can be very powerful so I wouldn't anticipate much Russian offensive success either thus stalemate into peace talks is the rule of the day (with extensive fortifications thereafter and theoretically trying to get more Patriot Missile batteries and F-16s). I suppose if Russia realizes this they could try to deliberately extend the war for longer, as a rule of thumb pitching a long protracted war of attrition for 2+ more years isn't a very good marketing strategy though; no matter how much state control of media you possess.
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