I won't belabor the point but I talked about Ukraine in 2014: https://fcdisbad.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukrainecrimea-strategic-thoughts.html and referenced my "Russian Sociology" Class (in 2008) where I asked the simple question of will Russia invade Ukraine (circa their Georgia invasion) and was rebuffed. And here we are.
Over the past several days while working I've been listening to numerous academic lectures from Columbia, Yale, Oxford and other Universities and just collected some loose thoughts on implications of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
"Just sending these so I don't forget them or they're fresh in your mind but the most significant guarantee of our present situation is that we are functionally in a New Cold War; except this time the financial balance is much more even because of China (and our extensive trade ties with China); basically Russia and China can support one another independently of Europe and the US and also Russia may have an economic War Boom a la the solution to the Great Depression globally.
This also means there is a very real spectre of Nuclear Annihilation; of late the doom and gloom scenario has been climate change based and/or corporate based but with the present war state corporations do not matter as much as nations or superpowers which is almost entirely new in my lifetime (corporate control has enhanced in every regard in the US in the past 30 years).
Finally Crypto Currency is an out for Russia to avoid the economic sanctions imposed by the US, Europe, and various private companies; this means that if the Neo Cold War Continues Crypto MUST be destroyed basically which could mean the end of billionaires in a broader sense and also severe restrictions on stock market manipulation; maybe potentially a not free market economy concept within 50 years or so. This also probably means the end of r/wallstreebets' footnote in history, tragically. In the actual Cold War there was a clear free market advantage for the west but there isn't anymore because China has somewhere around 30-40% of the world's financial resources and 60-80% of its loan/country debt ownership."
Aside: Many of the lectures I've listened to have less than a thousand Youtube views, I have 4 million Elden Ring views so far; good times.
Some additional thoughts: What happened after the Treaty of Versailles? The Weimar Republic. What happens if you sanction Russia too heavily to the point that the Russian people suffer immensely? This was probably not Putin's plan initially but there seems to be a clear sign of rationality and adaptability presently in Ukraine (i.e. if you resist we will flatten your cities with Heavy Artillery and cruise missiles); so despite the war not resolving instantaneously a strong show of Russian military might is still an attainable goal in the conflict, despite the preposterously enormous human cost. However if somehow sanctions continue at their present rate for at least 2 years and the Russian economy is truly disrupted then there will probably be a large amount of resentment for the west internally; Putin has already fostered Nationalism (and China is fostering Jingoism and Nationalism); this could easily be a unifying issue in Russia that makes them effectively stronger and more capable of a "War Boom" a la what brought the world out of the Great Depression in the 1930s and 1940s.
