More Strategic Geopolitical Thinking

This is mostly just for the sake of my own writing it down but naturally I had another interesting video I watched: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkXZYqWJX6k

Toward the end he talks about the basic implications of climate change and political instability, which COVID is kind of a test case for on a smaller scale, that combined with the elimination of the military taboo in Europe (and also Armenia/Azerbaijan) will probably lead to massive political instability in other parts of the world; especially Africa and Southeast Asia; it's even possible that India has a civil war which could easily involve Bangladesh and Pakistan as well (2 of the 3 having nuclear weapons). 

India is not like China; there is not a single monolithic (if apparently somewhat artificial) ethnic group to tie the country together; there are literally hundreds of different ethnic groups and hundreds of kingdoms in different parts of India that have existed historically. Presently there's close to 2 billion people on the Indian Subcontinent which is considerably more than were in Europe during WW2.

As far as Africa goes it seems highly likely that the weaker governments will not be able to deal with Climate Change and presumable famine caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine (both heavy grain suppliers to Africa and the Middle East); this will probably lead to a number of smaller conflicts and possibly larger continent spanning ones, and it is predicted mass migrations to Southern Europe which thanks to Syria and Ukraine we have a clear understand of how poorly that will be handled (essentially if you're not "European" enough we might not let you in etc.)

With the greater rise of Chinese economic power and military power the US will probably focus almost exclusively on an Arms Race with China within 20-30 years and will basically no longer care about Europe or NATO due to either isolationism or needing to focus on the bigger (presumed) threat; ultimately this means that Germany (with its greatly increased military spending) will be the central power in that Alliance and in Europe as well; don't really have any basis for figuring out what they'll do with that power but I wouldn't be too spooked by that relative to all the other issues.