Per Ryan Thibodaux's HoF Tracker David Ortiz is the only candidate on the current baseball hall of fame ballot on track for election: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI A few years ago the immortal Harold Baines was elected and a fun new statistic was invented; how many Harold Baineses are the actual hall of famers worth? Well let's dissect the current ballot accordingly. Before we get started I'd like to say I do think David Ortiz is worthy of the Hall of Fame but it should probably be in like 4-5 cycles or something; also the blatant hypocrisy of electing him (who was named on the Mitchell Report) while not electing Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, A-Rod, and others is highly amusing.
For further Baines context here's a legendary onion post on the matter, parodying the Yankees' celebration of Jeter passing Lou Gehrig in hits: https://www.theonion.com/derek-jeter-honored-for-having-fewer-hits-than-harold-b-1819571015
Baines was worth 38.7 BWAR in his career, roughly 60% of a hall of famer; though in the most journeyman way possible. He is largely a White Sox player so I have to support his candidacy on principle but that doesn't mean I can't make fun of it at the same time; I shall now order everyone (until I lose interest) on the ballot by their number of Baineses; apologies for the slapdashness of this component of the post:
1. Barry Bonds (4.20 Baineses)
My favorite Bonds Statistic is his .609 OBP in the 2004 season; generally it's a .350 OBP is considered quite good and .400 exceptional; Bonds gives no fucks about your 125 OPS+ statlines. Best player since WW2 and arguably the best of all time; if you want to make the "What if no steroids" case then he'd probably be like the 2nd or 3rd best since WW2 instead (with ~120 WAR).
2. Roger Clemens (3.597 Baineses)
As compelling as Bonds' case is I think Clemens' case as the best pitcher ever is much closer to rock solid; it's just Walter Johnson Vs Clemens but Clemens played in an immensely more difficult era. Bonds may be the best offensive player but Babe Ruth's combined stats as a hitter and pitcher still win out in that regard; Clemens is pretty clearly in the top 3 best pitchers of all time but most likely simply the best.
3. Alex Rodriguez (3.036 Baineses)
Surprisingly doesn't seem to be much discourse about A-Rod vis-a-vis the hall of fame this year; he's getting decent support but basically no chance of election until his 8th-10th years on the ballot (unless Bonds/Clemens get in via Vet committee next year, they are going to be on that ballot); both A-Rod and David Ortiz are prominent commentators of the game alongside the illustrious hall of famer Frank Thomas (my favorite player); for some reason people are trying to make rate stat comparisons between A-Rod and Big Papi; but A-Rod has FOUR (4) 9.0 BWAR Seasons whilst David Ortiz has one season over 6; I don't like the DH penalty either but they're not even in the same region; A-Rod should be inner circle while David Ortiz is like the 2nd or 3rd best DH candidate or so.
4. Curt Schilling (2.05 Baineses)
Everyone hates him, he helped make Kingdoms of Amalur (which is doing pretty well on my youtube incidentally; thanks to the infallible folks at THQ Nordic), and he's the best postseason pitcher this side of Koufax. Last guy on the ballot to be worth 2 Harold Baineses.
5. Scott Rolen (1.811 Baineses)
One of the best defensive Third Basemen ever, pretty clear hall of fame case but unfortunately taking quite a few ballots to get there.
6. Manny Ramirez (1.791 Baineses)
The other half of Ortiz in Boston; Manny was actually extraordinary late in his career having a 1.232 OPS half season with the Dodgers; a much better player than David Ortiz and surging in ballot support this year thanks to Big Papi; but inevitably will fall off the ballot barring some shocking change in the next few years.
7. Andruw Jones (1.62 Baineses)
Andruw Jones was a hall of famer and then he fell off a cliff (mostly due to corpulence); but he'll probably still get in via the writer's ballot toward the end.
8. Todd Helton (1.593 Baineses)
Todd Helton is the best Colorado Rockies player of all time and should/will get in the hall of fame on that premise, opinions vary due to Coor's Field but he was exceptional and had an exceptional beard.
9. Gary Sheffield (1.563 Baineses)
Gary Sheffield is sort of the Jim Rice of the modern era; except a much better player; he had a brief scuff with steroids (ostensibly accidental) before becoming a vocal anti-steroid person, I don't think that is hurting his case that much at this point; he's simply on the borderline for most voters; me big hall therefore yes.
10. Andy Pettite (1.5555555555 Baineses)
Pettitite should get in just for the 5 repeating imo. A key component of the Yankees World Series teams in the 90's/00's and overall just fun to watch; another borderline case but elevated by post season play (whereas Schilling is a clear hall of famer regardless)
11. Bobby Abreu (Also 1.555555555 Baineses)
Bobby Abreu walked a lot and was a solid overall player, but I think he's just someone that benefits from WAR a lot and doesn't have much peak value or anything in particular about him that stands out.
12. Mark Buehrle (1.527 Baineses)
The first long time White Sox on the list; obviously as a White Sox fan a clear hall of famer but the case comes down to how much you value a no hitter and a perfect game for a non strikeout pitcher, as he's otherwise borderline. He was with one team for a really long time and really good for the duration; I suspect he'll get in on the Veteran's Committee if the world doesn't explode in the next 100 years (unlikely that it doesn't).
13. Sammy Sosa (1.514 Baineses)
Sosa is probably the second most famous player in the 90's behind Mark McGwire; the issue is that McGwire just has a better hall of fame case and didn't make it; I wouldn't mind a special election inducting both at some point though.
14. Tim Hudson (1.496 Baineses)
Tim Hudson is slightly worse than Buehrle and not a White Sox player, therefore he can't possibly make it in. Actually Cronyism might benefit him eventually; I liked watching him pitch many times on TBS.
15. Jeff Kent (1.434 Baineses)
One of the best offensive second basemen of all time, will eventually get in via Veteran's Committee; possibly at the first available opportunity.
16. David Ortiz (1.429 Baineses)
So there you have it; David Ortiz is the 16th best player on the ballot by this measure; I could see you fudging that and putting him up to like 11th to 12thish but it is very difficult to not find 10 better players on the ballot. If he does get in congrats and congrats to the Hall of Fame for inducting someone relevant; should be fun.
The other players with more WAR than Harold Baines on this ballot are: Torii Hunter, Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Vizquel, Jake Peavy, and Carl Crawford; one past that is Bobby Wagner (a closer) who actually has a decent chance of election in the coming years.
