Early D3 Inferno and Path of Exile 2 Comparison/Discussion; is Jonathan Rogers Jay Wilson in Disguise?

Note: I'm listen to Mektul the forgemaster's theme while writing this, pretty damn good song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv8gzm2bLpM x............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. I considered doing like a video essay on this topic but I don't think I'm up to the task of summarizing it well; it's an extremely complicated backstory so something would fall in the gaps. D3 Inferno was this very strange, brief, interesting time in history and POE2 is sort of loosely attempting to do a similar thing (which is to say be impossibly hard for a few months and then get nerfed into oblivion); it's just that POE2 feels extremely sluggish getting to that point so while the concept of e.g. fighting Super Zana over and over and it taking 20 hours of attempts to beat would be cool in reality it would be farm the atlas for 400 hours for one 5 minute attempt (6 logouts) where you randomly get one shot then go again etc. assuming GGG doesn't nerf your build from orbit in the mean time. One attempt per boss just doesn't work for the general interest of beating Early Inferno D3..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................I suppose I should define how D3 Inferno worked and how villainous it was precisely; basically every white mob in the entire game would kill you in one hit if you didn't have the best gear imaginable and none of that would ever drop unless farmed 10,000 treasure goblins basically (what Kripp did); so it was entirely pay to win in a literal sense with the real money auction house. That said if you didn't engage with the P2W system it was really fun just figuring out how to progress in these unbelivably fucked zones. Silver Spire 2 in launch D3 Inferno is far and away probably the hardest thing in any RPG ever made; I don't think the zone was ever fully cleared out pre nerf, the only way through was just to run to the exit then go fight Diablo (Voiced by Jennifer Hale) who was relatively easy by comparison; there's monsters in that zone that don't even show up, they just appear from nothingness and instantly one shot you; there's angels that fly in from off screen, all of this shit hits for like 25,000 damage and you've got 15,000 health maybe (again unless you paid to win to trivialize it). Is POE2 that hard? No not even close, is that the target, eh hard to say; surely it's informed by it but most people don't remember that part of D3; they remember post Reaper of Souls and Greater Rifts etc. which is a fine game but nothing remarkable in the grand scheme of things (apparently now highly beloved in a nostalgia way as though it was as good as D2 which is laughable naturally)....................................................................................................................................................................................................................So what is POE2 targetting here precisely, is it the hardcores, is it the casuals; what's the goal. Well the main thing is to keep you playing the game forever so you spend money, Diablo 2 doesn't have this issue therefore Diablo 2 will always be a better game for all time; and Chris Wilson will keep playing D2/D2R and not POE. They want the combat to be slower paced and have a more methodical feeling to it but also for it to be abrasively impossible at the high end so only like 5-10 people can even kill the top pinnacle bosses and everyone else can wish they were that guy. There's a hundred different issues with this conceptually but I think the big one right now is that even those players don't like the game so if you lose e.g. Ben's interest then your whole concept is fucked. That said I would anticipate them dramatically changing how the entire endgame functions; I don't think the campaign is going to change much and seems to be in an okay state aside from a preposterous amount of bugs in Act 3. That's another thing with Diablo 3 is that it's a technical marvel, still feels overall the best and basically never had any technical issues aside from launch day server stuff; the endgame was always pretty whatever and the desire to play it forever absolutely not but just the way the game feels on a moment to moment basis is very good (at least with the classes that aren't boring as shit) If you could get D3's gameplay and then put POE1's mechanics and systems into it you could probably make a really fucking good game but no one is up to that task so instead we have some strange souls-like not particularly difficult combat combined with no loot and constant build nerfing.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... I will say the Necromancer play style from D2 is best revived in POE2 at this point; you still don't have enigma or something like that to tie the thing together for usability but at least you have to straight up going afk and everything dies while you listen to a podcast vibe; that's neat. They will nerf aspects of this build but probably not the overall feel; for some reason almost no game has accomplished D2 necro so minions always feel exceedingly tedious to optimize outside of D2 but that's not really an issue in POE2 so far; pick minion nodes and go afk, you win. Tough game. I'm not even playing my Necromancer I'm actively using a different character in couch co-op and the necro just functions as a series of meatshields, pretty fun if you don't mind using two controllers or a controller and a keyboard...........................................................................................................................................................................................................Tinfoil hat mode engage. Why the Jay Wilson comparison? Well before release Jonathan Rogers kept saying stuff like "we're making the best action RPG of all time" blah blah blah, setting expectations higher than Cyberpunk 2077; what they should have said was yo pay me and you get to be a free labor beta tester, isn't that fucking sweet? Thanks bro. In like 5 years the game'll be good, trust fam. So in a non honesty context that wasn't going to happen, if you don't know who Jay Wilson was he was the original game director for D3 which was at the time the largest PC game release of all time, fastest selling and all that jazz; probably made like 1/500th of Minecraft and Fortnite, incredible levels of success; naturally this made Jay Wilson really happy. Unfortunately the Battle.net forums, that hive of magnificent bastardry became an endless barrage of complaints mostly about D3 Inferno and the RMAH; eventually Jay Wilson released this weird Tseric like statement that ended with "Aren't you thankful?" and was forced to resign like a few weeks later; Aren't you thankful is one of the predecessors of you guys have phones right etc. just meme culture/youtube wasn't as prominent at the time so it's more of an old hat forum lore concept now than an enduring thing...................................................................................................................................................................................................................If you look at the POE2 reddits right now it's very similar to that just constant complaining from people that have played POE for 5000-25000 hours, basically the worst place on the planet including Gaza (meme); that sort of thing combined with very high sales will probably eventually lead to statements and youtube videos and apologies and suck my dicks and so on and most likely some sort of comedic iconic moment like Chris Wilson during Lake of Kalandra; how will it manifest exactly who can say but it could probably happen any time now; grab that popcorn............................................................................................................................................................................................................................What would I do as a profound intellectual mastermind who's good at predicting real life and doesn't really give a fuck about POE unless the league is good (shoutouts to Sanctum/Ultimatum in POE1)? Well I think they have the casual audience and they need to figure out a way to make the onboarding in maps better, they could make endgame like 10-20-50 times harder and who cares those autistic morons would keep playing regardless but you need to get the casuals to play maps so buff white maps/yellow maps and only nerf high end builds or exceedingly high popularity builds. Also maybe just delete deadeye and replace it with Warden or whatever; bring it back later in redesigned form; otherwise we're just back to POE1 31%+ Deadeye play rates and what not; I don't think nerfing it is going to work and would probably be received worse though either move will cause drama.

Thought Experiment for Various Apocalyptic and/or WW3 Scenarios and Probable Outcomes

' Greetings Friends, as we creep ever closer to annihilation I thought it might be worth loosely looking at the various scenarios of doom and gloom that are at least cumulatively likely to occur in the next 10-25 years. A lot of talk has been given to companies not being forward thinking leading to our present state (i.e. not planning for more than 5 years or even 3 months in the future) and while that has merit I'd suggest there's basically no reason to plan for any scenario beyond 25 years right now given the extraordinary likelihood of catastrophic failure of the global economy in that timeframe; this wasn't always the case and in a non Francis Fukuyama asinine optimism world post 1991 maybe this wouldn't have occurred but here we are.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................1. Regional Simultaneous Wars in Many Places which don't have a core alliance system connecting them. This is already happening; the short list of wars or very recent wars right now is Ukraine, Israel Palestine, Israel Lebanon, Israel Iran, Houthis Vs Shipping, Somalian Civil War, Sudanese Civil War, Congolese Civil War, Myanmar Civil War, Syrian Civil War, Armenia Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Ecuador Collapse of Society, Haitian Collapse of Society. Those are all already happening or have happened; so I think you just add Taiwan or South China Sea/Philippines to this and this is one of the more probably scenarios moving forward; I don't think this automatically leads to a World War and even a big conflict between the US and China direclty doesn't necessarily completely crash the global economy of its own volition. The main thing that it does is incentivize destroying the satellite network because of asymmetry...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................2. Nuclear Weapons Used in Space. The main reason this will happen is a significant enough lead for the US over all opposition so that even though destroying the vast majority of satellites causes great collateral damage the assumption is that it levels the information playing field and we get a war more similar to WW2 than WW1; ubiquitous information has led to stagnation of the frontline in Ukraine (though that's changing as we speak); but if you take out the satellites then maneuver warfare becomes viable again. Right now Russia benefits more from this in a expanded war in Europe scenario but I think China would also benefit eventually; particularly if they start with a beachhead in Taiwan that leads to stagnant expensive trench warfare; but if you negate surveillance through EWS and knocking out most satellites then you can levy more force advantages. This still doesn't necessarily lead to a world war but it does destroy the economic system and most internet/GPS systems as we know them....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3. United States Civil War for Domestic Issues. The main corrolary here is the American Civil War of course, I guess the main issue with that direct comparison is that it's more likely to be a bunch of smaller organizations than entire states banding together at least presently; this could change over the course of 20 years though. But ultimately the point is at least a partial collapse of society due to infighting and the rise of populism; note Trump is probably too old to actually see this come to fruition or at least the conclusion so if it is centered around a particular leader it'll have to be someone new. This is one that's harder to grasp happening on a logistics level, it's a scenario that could happen but how and why and when it would happen are hard to foresee beforehand (Not unlike the Russian government having an upheaval at some point)..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4. United States Civil War for Economic Issues. This is your 1917 scenario; the main reason this hasn't taken off is that the elite are able to keep people comfortable enough that they don't feel the need to contest economic inequality; but there is obviously a point where this doesn't hold true forever assuming the wealthiest control a greater and greater percentage of the baseline of society. If we had gone into a scenario of Corporate control of everything then this probably would never happen, but because Globalization (at least centered around the US instead of BRICS) is dying and State Foreign Affairs are clearly showing a superiority of control (i.e. companies are listening to the government for things like military buildup and not the other way around) the corporate control of society is also declining. I don't think this necessarily leads to more economic equality and it will probably lead to a spike in inequality eventually, the question is does that cause enough upheaval to lead to societal decline and the specific targetting of the wealthy for destruction; also hard to define the likelihood of this occurring but it should have clearer indicators as it gets closer to happening. The Rich already think it's going to happen and are building survival bunkers both in the US and New Zealand to try to avoid getting decapitated; Mark Zuckerberg being the poster child for this presently. If society completely collapses that probably won't wind up helping them in the long run but maybe it gets them 5-10 more years of security.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5. Internet apocalypse. This is a theoretical scenario that gets wargamed a lot but no one actually knows if its possible; it would probably require the nuclear weapons in space scenario to happen first but the basic idea is that some team of hackers (probably nationalized) does sufficient virtual and actual infrastructure damage to the internet (which has always been kind of a hodge podge system) to make it cease functioning. The main thing this does is kill all fiat currency and thus at least temporarily destroy economic and trade systems either on a continental basis or worldwide; this kind of thing has happened before so you can figure out various scenarios but ultimately barter would return for a while and then eventually some kind of gold or silver standard. Fiat has led to infinite inflation so at some point it would probably collapse of its own volition in a non unified world scenario (though that's much longer term than the likelihood of modern society's survival). There was some thought that Russia would try to do this to Ukraine during its initial invasion but that did not happen, probably because of collateral damage fear and also overconfidence (thinking that the infrastructure would be valuable to them after victory)...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................6. World War 3 Based on Alliance Systems. I don't actually think this outcome is that likely but the main scenario is that Taiwan/South China Sea and the invasion of the Baltic States happen within 6 months or so of each other; Baltic States invasion is probably 10-15 years out and most Taiwan scenarios are only 5-10 years out so the odds of them actually lining up neatly and enough parties being interested in participating in a global conflict is pretty unlikely. There's also not much to point to Israel playing a role in this, more and more Israel is completely isolated except for a few countries in Western Europe and the US itself so it shouldn't impact a global conflict scenario at least in the forseeable future.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7. Nuclear Apocalypse. This would likely happen as a result of something else happening above except for US Civil Wars, we are definitely closer to this happening that any point post Cuban Missile Crisis but it still seems pretty unlikely. The Nuclear Taboo being broken seems probable but not a massive dueling retaliation scenario; as conventional war is more and more normalized and expected in society I don't think pressing the Nuclear button becomes more likely; though if another deterrent system like a drone that is invincible and shoots down everything sent at it starts functioning then parallel deterrence systems become more probable. Alternatively we could have many small exchanges of tactical nuclear weapons that don't inherently lead to apocalyptic scenarios; this would mean widespread destruction in Eastern Europe but not in many other places; that seems fairly likely overall even in the absence of the taboo being broken. Note if the US, China, and Russia were all destroyed in this way it wouldn't necessarily lead to an apocalyptic scenario for the rest of the world and assuming secondary trading systems are in place by then the world might be able to continue on in a civilized fashion.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Rare Movie Review post in the now interesting world. Furiosa is the prequel to maybe the best action movie of all time and as such should be entered with tempered expectations; it feels a lot more similar to the non Fury Road Mad Max films which tend to be pretty slow paced and punctuated by action sequences instead of just being one long action (fucking amazing) sequence. I think if you compare it to the very first Mad Max that's a good way to think about Furiosa; Fury Road was a way more action-ey version of the Road Warrior and this is a world building exercise around the world established by Fury Road but maybe happening at a similar time frame as the first Mad Max (Toecutter's interdimensional properties notwithstanding); albeit maybe 5-10 years later. It does start with a post apocalyptic overview implying it's earlier and then goes to zoom in on Australia (despite still being filmed in the Namibian desert, in fact in the exact same places as Fury Road).....................................................................................................................................................................................................You start with a young Furiosa for the first 45 minutes or so who seems to have the same lipstick for every scene (which maybe makes sense in one of the scenes but not really otherwise); dunno if that's the child actor's parents interceding and forcing George Miller to make her look a certain way for most sequences but she does eventually look more Furiosa-ish briefly. These scenes have some Many Mothers bits, The Organic Mechanic, and Rictus Erectus as well as Scrotus from the Mad Max Game. I never finished the Mad Max game but I did play like 20 hours of it and it does seem to tie in pretty heavily to the world building and scene construction of this movie (in addition to establishing stuff that exists in Fury Road itself). I wouldn't have minded a young, mostly mute Furiosa for maybe the entire movie; Charlize Theron doesn't really resemble Anya Taylor Joy at all apart from being like 7 inches taller but a child can obviously look quite a bit different and it wouldn't harm the film much; also she doesn't have very many lines of dialogue anyway. They do use Anya Taylor Joy's height to emphasize the transition to adulthood so I guess it works in the context of the movie independent of Fury Road............................................................................................................................................................................................................Eventually Furiosa is captured and brought to Chris Hemsworth's Dementus (who might be referenced in the game as well) who has this pristine white cape at the start and seems relatively friendly and optimistic, the cape and Dementus himself shift in fairly striking visual and presentiation motifs; you probably could've titled the film Dementus for how much he is emphasized; obviously the state of Furiosa at the beginning of Fury Road is known so what becomes interesting is how she got there and that character building mostly happens for Dementus instead of Furiosa. I guess this is a potential point of criticism, but I think it would be quite difficult if you're starting with a child actress and switching actresses mid movie to establish an arc beyond simple revenge (apart from her general lack of dialogue); so this would be more of a thing if they had stuck with one actress.........................................................................................................................................................................................................As far as the general action sequence construct of the movie there is one big middle convoy fight a la the first sequence in Fury Road; then a heavily dramatic short action sequence a la Splendid being run over by Rictus' Bigfoot giant VW monster truck in Fury Road; then there is not really a climactic final battle sequence so that's probably the main thing that Fury Road fans would take issue with. That and the movie being 2.5 hours long instead of exactly 2 hours for Fury Road; again this is more similar to Mad Max 1's ending and general pacing though the bigger action sequences (with some really cool practical effects) are more in line with the Road Warrior or Fury Road. An interesting bit is that in the Mad Max game you have these outposts you take over that have an entrance with a door and then a series of dudes to fight inside to take over the outpost; that exact thing happens in this movie twice which is pretty bizarre because it's a very video game thing to happen but you wouldn't think of that in the context of a film that's about convoy fights and ridiculous vehicles. One spoiler I will share is that Dementus' main monster truck doesn't get destroyed at least not on screen, it loses its wheels but no big explosion; I'm not sure if George Miller just didn't have a back-up one or two a la Gigahorse and Bigfoot (and several OG War Rigs) and didn't want to blow up a nice impractical vehicle or that's just part of the methodical nature of the ending; who knows....................................................................................................................................................................................................... Overall the movie is worth watching just for the world-building and atmospheric nature alone. There are some extremely specific musical sequences that happen briefly in the movie (and only Fury Road devotees will notice) but by and large there just is a very toned down score with a lot of silence a la No Country for Old Men; I think your mileage may vary on whether you like that or not; I did have a completely silent theater so it worked for me (1 other guy in attendance, Tuesday afternoon showtime). The original Immortan Joe died in 2020 so they had to replace him, the replacement is fine but you will probably notice; I feel like with AI assistance you could've pulled off the voice better and just had the dude play him since the visual is more or less spot on (looks younger around the eyes but the film is 20 years earlier); he does say "You are Awaited" well at least; 3 or 4 Witness Me's in the movie. Nicholas Hoult being in the movie wouldn't make any sense but he did kind of hard carry a lot of Fury Road's dialogue so him not being there is felt, Dementus is good but doesn't fill the same role. Nathan Jones as Rictus is excellent again.

COVID to Afghanistan to Ukraine to Gaza, delineating American Prestige Loss and the End of Deterrence as a Concept

Greetings Friends. So this is a similar concept to what I've been talking about as far as the causality of current wars and so on but in theory is still worth thinking and writing about. If you listen to Western Military leaders a lot of it is about "How do we deter Iran or the Houthis from fucking with us" and fundamentally the question is why would they not care about the American military response. The answer is fundamentally we are away from the unique era where deterrence exists as Nuclear Weapon usage fades from living memory so those can't function as a deterrent until they get used again (which is more likely now than at any point since the early 1960s, but still not very likely); so we are back to Great Power politics or strategic competition or whatever and the concept of global Prestige is more meritorious than anything resembling deterrence...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................American Prestige started to fade with COVID as 1.2 million Americans died as a result of it compared to 5.8 million for the entire rest of the world, if the most powerful country suffers the most then that's an indication that they aren't actually that powerful anymore with the inability to stop the spread of a contagion (due to lack of social control or the president(s) being a moron or whatever), obviously there are a multitude more factors in how and why COVID happened the way it did but those are the ones that are prominent and easily perceived by friends and foes alike. After this we had the withdrawal from Afghanistan which might as well be a total defeat for a 20 year war which didn't accomplish much of anything and then the invasion of Ukraine and October 7th; at this point its safe to assume there isn't that much American prestige on the global scale on the whole so my question is how do you stop the decline of American prestige or is there a way to stop it............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................So fundamentally I think the only way to regain prestige is an extraordinary military success against a peer competitor; the US could technically win the war in Ukraine on a whim (and risk nuclear escalation) but that doesn't seem to be in the cards so we'll just have China be the only peer competitor in this scenario. IF China invades Taiwan and the US helps stop it inflicting a catastrophic defeat then the US will re-emerge as the world leader at least for 5-10 years; I still think China will get back in position and return to the pre WWI-ish alliance system state that we're in right now but technically the US does have an out for prestige regrowth assuming China invades Taiwan. If China just does nothing for 20 years then they will probably automatically become more prestigious over time as the US becomes less prestigious both because of that and additional other factors; mostly just the progression of time. China does appear to have a superior industrial base for military procurement presently even if we still have the technological advantage in most areas, so while we have the Gerald R. Ford aircraft Carrier we lack the ability to produce more of them quickly enough but China could theoretically produce more carrier strike groups over time with their larger naval production capabilities; same is true of other areas though I would assume the US still has the advantage purely for aircraft (this is a vague area with untested systems so on one actually knows until a war breaks out)

FFVII Rebirth Ending Analysis; Philosophically Similar to Ending E from Nier Automata; Schrodinger's Aerith (Spoilers)

Greetings Friends, a rare non geopolitics post though by the time the next FFVII sequel comes out (titled Reunion no doubt) Japan will very likely be in at least a large regional war if not a world war so basically any Japanese game that you were planning on playing in the next 2-6 years could get delayed indefinitely...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................So basically the question at the end of Rebirth is "Is Aerith dead or not?" I think to be dead in the traditional sense of FFVII she would have to not effect the plot of the third game until the very end with the summoning of Holy (Note this isn't necessarily where the third game will end but probably is in some way); but instead Cloud is perceptive of a timeline where Aerith is alive while everyone else is in a "normal timeline" (though Tseng is alive for no apparent reason) where she "died;" essentially the (8 hour long) ending is as ambiguous as it possibly could be; so the answer to the question of "Does Aerith die?" In FFVII Rebirth is "Yes... no... maybe? Also fuck Nomura" I think ultimately the most dead she could be in the third game is being a Jokerlike figure in Arkham Knight which is to say having more dialogue than every other character in the game but she'll also show up as a playable character during the final boss fights (of which there could be 15 consecutively); is that what you define as dead or will she be more properly dead by the end of the third game? They don't even have the scene of Cloud putting her body in the water which is the most "yo she's dead" scene that they could've put in; doesn't happen.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................As far as the general construction of the third game, they more or less did about 90% of the remaining plot in Rebirth, so you had 5% in Midgar with Remake (which is a much better, more coherent game with an outstanding soundtrack (Rebirth's is all over the place)); therefore the only plotlines still out there are Wutai (?) and the Northern Crater. Tifa's plot is completely butchered in Rebirth, they will probably retcon this and still have the Tifa saves cloud thing happen in Reunion but that doesn't mean they didn't butcher her plot in Rebirth. Fucking Zack is not even dead at the end of Rebirth, even he has no satisfying conclusion to being a ghost dream final boss helper man (complete with character tutorial and mechanics during the 27 phase final boss fight). Basically they have nothing other than nostalgia references to carry the third game with, and Rebirth itself was only particularly strong in a few key moments (though the combat gameplay is still fantastic), also Aerith being sort of alive doesn't mean she'll be a party member for much of the game though a Search for Spock situation could happen where she rejoins 10-15 hours from the end. Mechanically the game suffers a lot without Arcane Ward so it seems like they'll have to introduce some sort of caster character to make the combat jive again (or just keep Yuffie unnerfed so she can solo everything)..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................So why the Nier comparison; well 2B does in fact die with an actual departure scene and everything but there's an implication that her memory unit is still alive in the possession of pod, I think if they ever make a Nier sequel 2B will come back like halfway through the game. However Aerith is probably going to be effecting the plot of Reunion throughout the story, every time Cloud has an argument with Sephiroth in his head there'll be him having a conversation with Aerith too; so essentially she'll be omnipresent and might have more dialogue than everyone else in the game. To me that is more alive than 2B's current state though I would also argue that 2B is "alive" or potentially alive in the context of a Nier sequel, thus Aerith is in some state of living and not being actually dead despite sort of dying in some perceived reality (though again there's still some alternate timeline bullshit going on). Ultimately Nomura probably wanted to leave the potential of Aerith being properly alive and not just ghostly alive to the next game, but there really is no plot allure to the next game at all (though people will still play it just like people went and saw Rise of Skywalker), at best if they somehow integrate Advent Children and Dirge of Cerberus into the core plot (not DLC) then it could be somewhat interesting though still a giant clusterfuck. Aside: Final playtime with Rebirth was 114 hours so it's somewhere around 2.5 times longer than traditional FFVII, plot threads resolved: 0.

Theorizing about General Wesley Clark's Cryptic Message in a CSIS Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vk8_UBmKu0U Greetings Friends..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CSIS has been producing some excellent content overall on virtually every topic of late, I think the North Korea focus is maybe a bit sketchy given the relative unlikelihood of a Korean conflict before the Taiwan conflict but I could easily be proven wrong on that point. The above youtube link is Clark's chat with Eliot Cohen "Reflections on the War in Ukraine" which is a wonderful video as far as being relatively apolitical and just assessing the military situation without non military biases; if you pay any attention to the news or any other media source this is a super rare thing to find on either side but Colonel Marcus Reisner's videos out of the Theresan Military Academy in Austria are a pretty consistent (if somewhat sporadic now) source.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................Anyway the point of this post is that Clark mentions classified information regarding the Battle for Kiev, so the question is what was he referring to? There are 3 or 4 high probabilty things or some combination of them, could be other stuff like the sinking of the Moskva though. The most obvious point would be propaganda information, the Ghost of Kiev nominally but also the long stuck convoy train; both of those stories were false but propagated everywhere and presumably only like 5-10% of people that saw them know they were at this point, that level of information control would be difficult to produce internally in Ukraine given the hectic nature of the moment so it being exterior seems fairly likely.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................A second point is the assassination of Russian Generals on the front line, I think there were 4 or 5 such commanders killed but not sure on the exact number, it is reasonably well documented (again questionable as to why that would be if it's not propaganda); I don't think the US actually killed them but probably relayed all the necessary information via satellite data and so on.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................A Third point is the peace talks in Turkey, this is something that is mentioned a lot on both sides right now but moreso from Putin's POV (famously in the Tucker Carlson interview); Putin says that the withdrawal from Kiev was part of those talks but I don't think that exactly lines up timing-wise; however the US disrupting those talks in some covert way is highly likely; its a very complicated situation so I suspect the truth will never be known on this one as to exactly what happened, most likely some 75% of the truth narrative will win out in 10-50 years and that'll be the story going forward in history books. The withdrawal from Kiev is probably the second most interesting aspect of the war so far, the most interesting by far being Prigozhin's mutiny (which is probably the most interesting event of my lifetime, and technically I was alive when the Soviet Union fell; obviously the Taiwan invasion commencing might trump it but maybe a blockade will be sufficient)

Guyana and General Demographics, Scarcity Issues Leading to War

So around a week ago the phenomenally unpopular Nicolas Maduro basically stood in front of a map that said 2/3rds of Guyana is part of Venezuela and gave a speech; it's not super clear whether this will lead to war precipitously or a thousand other possibilities but it is an interesting event. Maduro wants to shore up his absymal popularity and maybe attempt to fix the disastrous Venezuelan economy so what better way to do that than to invade your neighbor that has 1/35th your population and 1/40th to 1/100th the size of your military. The territory in question is extremely sparsely populated; it's kind of the inverse of Gaza, in Gaza you have 2+ million people in 141 Square Miles and in Essequibo you have roughly 125,000 People in 61,600 Square Miles; so 2 people per Square Mile basically. It is one of the densest Forests/Jungles on Earth and there's basically no one there so if theoretically Maduro was to occupy the coastline he would face little or no resistance presently.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................There's a wide variety of Oil interest in the location (especially Offshore) and the GDP per capita of Guyana entirely (~850,000 people) has tripled since 2020 and is now almost 8x the Venezuelan GDP Per Capita under Maduro, to put it bluntly I don't think Venezuela is even remotely capable of holding any of the Naval Territory in question which seems to be the main corporate interest but they can definitely hold a portion of the land territory if they want to; is there anything gained from doing that other than more sanctions and a 1% chance of Desert Storm 2.0 (Jungle Storm edition) is more debatable but if it's strictly a popularity or Military loyalty measure instead of an economic one (because Maduro is astonishingly inept in that department) then it could work.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................This next bit is just a musing secondary aspect of this and other recent posts; essentially the Demographics of the world have lined up to incentivize war before inevitable fertility decline but another point is that in 40-80 years or whatever the main fuel of existing war materiel will be much more scarce; so if you want to fight a war the time is now before everything is electronic drones that aren't very good at taking territory (but could be quite adept at holding it); in this scenario if you succeed in taking Taiwan and the Phillippines by 2070 or what have you and then fossil fuels are starting to run out it's possible you wind up in a similar world state to 1991 where there are very few disruptions for around a century until offensive drones and/or EMPs/EWS's are figured out; so if your country is in a strong position going into the scarcity period and the demographic decline phase then in theory it will prosper more in that environment; possibly even leading to an uncontested rise or unipolarity (unlikely admittedly but we are projecting to the far flung future at this point).